Who Can Stop Google From Gaining 90% Market Share

So Jason is predicting that “Google will have 90% search market share in the US one year from now“, and while people may cringe at that thought, I don’t think it’s a completely unlikely scenario.

Ask is dead, IMHO Ask had a much better product they just were never effective at communicating that to the public, so they floundered and Barry Diller wasn’t patient enough to wait long term. So all that traffic goes to Google … ding bump for Google right there.

AOL … really does anybody other than your grandma use AOL? They had an interesting product with Netscape Propeller social voting site, unfortunately they ignored it and now it’s overrun by spammers.

Hakia interesting but UI is awful and confusing [lcd tv].

Quintura I love the associated word cloud on the right, but again for most people the UI is intimidating [blackberry curve].

Wikia … really … ok fine [at & t tilt] … first result a poker site … see what I mean do we even have a word for pre alpha?

Now we have to try and play a little guessing game lets go the microhoo route first. It’s going to take 18-24 months for those two 800 pound gorillas to get through enough meetings and coordination to a) figure who’s staying and going b) who’s running search c) what platform they are using d) how to merge the existing technologies e) planning a new strategy to adapt to the market changes and Google enhancements that occurred in the time it took them to get this far.

OK what if they don’t merge, Yahoo as whole has no vision or leadership, the captain isn’t boldly going where no man has gone before, he’s looking for a safe port to hole up during the storm. A lack of leadership and vision and it trickles down. Oh and cutting employees, never fills them with the inspiration to rise up to the challenge, it’s demoralizing … been there done that.

Microsoft, again what are you doing to innovate and change the landscape? Where is your leadership in the search market? Nobody associates MSN with a leading edge search engine, it’s an online media portal. Maybe people will hate vista so much they’ll be able to release another OS and force a large segment of the population to reset their default search engines again … unless they break down and finally buy a Mac.

I want to see what Rich Skrenta is working on but we’re a few years away …

Sure it the numbers may not technically add up to 90% but then I’ve never been big on bean counters anyway. Google may not have 90% or more market share but it sure will feel like it. Google remains the only search engine cultivating brand loyalty and evangelists among the digerati. With Ask out of the way, there’s no innovation, the others are all reactionary and playing catchup … my two cents.

For another opinion see Rich Skrenta: Who will stop Google from going to 90% market share?

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